Aging of the United States

U.S. labor participation over time

A shortage of workers is expected in the U.S. workforce due to a declining labor participation rate. Projections show that the demand for labor needed now is not being fulfilled, and the gap between labor needed and labor available will continue to expand over the future.[26][27] Owing to the relatively large size population size of those born between the end of WWII and the mid-1960s (referred to by some as the "Baby Boomers"), the number of people generally considered to be of working age is declining.[26][27] Additionally, young people are spending more time in education and training and are entering the workforce at a later age, and therefore, there are fewer entering the workforce in their early twenties. A loss in skilled and capable workers has made it harder for employers to recruit new staff.[28] The retirement of members of the aging workforce could possibly result in the shortage of skilled labor in the future.[29][30] A majority of experienced utility workers and hospital caregivers, for example, will be eligible for retirement.[30] By the late 2010s, the United States found itself facing a shortage of tradespeople,[31] a problem that persisted in the early 2020s despite the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession and prospective employers offering higher salaries and paid training.[32] Having an aging population accelerates industrial automation.[33][34] Experts expect the labor crunch of the early 2020s will continue for years to come, due to not just the Great Resignation, but also the aging of the U.S. population,[35] the decline of the labor participation rate,[19] and falling rates of legal immigration.[19]

Additionally, a shrinking birth rate could exacerbate economic inequality by increasing the importance of family inheritance,[36] while an overall decrease in the population could shrink the economy by reducing the demand for basic goods like real estate.[37]

Nevertheless, unlike their counterparts in many other countries East and West, American Baby Boomers had many children of their own, the Millennials, who are a large cohort relative to the nation's population and are themselves having a relatively high birth rate, as of the 2010s.[38] Millennials and Generation Z have been responsible in a surge in labor participation in the U.S. as the same time as the contraction of the workforce of major economies.[39] As a result, the United States will continue to have a significant number of consumers, investors and taxpayers in the upcoming decades. This gives the nation an economic edge over others.[38]

Population pyramid of the United States from 2000 to projections up to 2100

Due to declining birth rates, the number of American high-school graduates is expected to drop after 2025, putting more pressure on institutions of higher learning at a time when many have already been permanently shut down.[40][41] Many private colleges will not make it while public ones will struggle to convince state and local governments to keep funding them. Demand for education from the nation's top 100 colleges and universities, however, is likely to remain high, in part because of rising numbers of Indian and Chinese Americans, for whom higher education is of utmost importance.[6] To survive, non-elite institutions will have to cut back or eliminate courses in the liberal arts and humanities, like gender studies,[42] and expand those in emerging fields, such as artificial intelligence,[43] and professional programs, such as law enforcement.[6]

Because the United States is aging more slowly than any one of its main rivals, it will have an advantage in any future geopolitical contests.[38] Given current demographic trends, it is unlikely that the United States will lose its dominant position to China and Russia.[44] In fact, projections of China's economic growth from the early 2020s taking into account China's population aging, among other problems facing the nation, tend to delay the date at which China's economy will surpass America's. Even if China were to overtake the United States, the latter would soon reclaim its position.[45] However, China's demographic decline relative to the U.S. could prompt it to undertake more risky actions, with regards to the issue of Taiwanese independence, for instance.[46]

Meanwhile, America's allies, including Japan and the European Union, are themselves aging more quickly.[44]

The U.S. federal social security system functions through collecting payroll taxes to support older citizens.[30] Some argue that a smaller workforce, coupled with increased numbers of longer-living elderly, may have a negative impact on the social security system. The Social Security Administration estimates that the old age dependency ratio (people ages 65+ divided by people ages 20–64) in 2080 will be over 40%, compared to the 20% old age dependency ratio in 2005.[30] Some state that increasing life expectancy of the older population will result in decreases in social security benefits, devaluing private and public pension programs.[30][47] Were there to be a reduction or elimination of programs such as social security and Medicare, people may experience pressure to delay retirement and to continue working.[48]

During the late 2010s and early 2020s, as Millennials and Generation Z join the workforce in large numbers, allowing the U.S. to maintain a relatively large tax base, concerns over the financial sustainability of various social welfare programs are alleviated.[39]

Because of the many older adults opting to remain in the U.S. workforce, many studies have been done to investigate whether the older workers are at greater risk of occupational injury than their younger counterparts. Due to the physical declines associated with aging, older adults tend to exhibit losses in eyesight, hearing and physical strength.[30] Data shows that older adults have low overall injury rates compared to all age groups, but are more likely to suffer from fatal and more severe occupational injuries.[30][49] Of all fatal occupational injuries in 2005, older workers accounted for 26.4%, despite only comprising 16.4% of the workforce at the time.[49] Age increases in fatality rates in occupational injury are more pronounced for workers over the age of 65.[49] The return to work for older workers is also extended; older workers experience a greater median number of lost work days and longer recovery times than younger workers.[49] Some common occupational injuries and illnesses for older workers include arthritis[48] and fractures.[50] Among older workers, hip fractures are a large concern, given the severity of these injuries.[50]

By 2030, 20% of Americans are predicted to be past the age of retirement, which could pose a burden to the healthcare system. Older and retired people tend to need more health services, which must be provided by their younger counterparts, so some demographers have theorized that this could have a negative impact on the country.[8] Older adults will also have to deal with more chronic diseases; older adults who have worked in the construction industry have shown high rates of chronic diseases.[47][51] Experts suggest that the number of geriatricians will have to triple to meet the demands of the rising elderly.[52] There is expected to be a similarly increased demand in other healthcare professionals, such as nurses, occupational therapists, physical therapists and dentists.[52] In addition, there is expected to be an increasing demand over common geriatric care consumption needs, such as medications, joint replacements and cardiovascular operations.[52]

Population aging can potentially change American society as a whole. Many companies use a system, in which older, tenured workers get raises and benefits over time, eventually hitting retirement.[53] With larger numbers of older workers in the workforce, this model might be unsustainable. In addition, perceptions of older adults in society will change, as the elderly are living longer lives and more active than before.[52]

Carbon emissions reduction due to various lifestyle choices

Some demographers have suggested that a declining birth rate may have net positive effects on the country.[54] Many environmentalists see this trend more optimistically because it could help combat the perceived problem of overpopulation. The world population is expected to reach almost 10 billion by the year 2050, which could pose a burden to Earth's natural resources.[55] Having fewer children has been shown to be an effective way to reduce environmental impact through reduced carbon footprint and higher populations could increase the effects of climate change in the future.[56] Additionally, there is some research supporting the idea that in well-educated countries, it might actually benefit the population to have a birth rate below replacement levels.[57]