Climate inertia

Climate inertia or climate change inertia is the phenomenon by which a planet's climate system shows a resistance or slowness to deviate away from a given state. It emerges from the inherent behavior of complex systems, and includes the fundamental types of inertia exhibited during movements of matter and exchanges of energy.[1] Generally, inertia can reside within the drivers of, and the responses to, climate change.

In the case of Earth's climate, increasing fossil-fuel carbon emissions are the primary inertial driver of change during recent decades, and can be considered to result from the collective socioeconomic inertia of its over 8 billion human inhabitants.[2][3] Many other features of the Earth system have exhibited inertial responses or feedbacks to this driver, also known as a forcing. The rate of rise in global surface temperature (GST) has especially been resisted by 1) the thermal inertia of the planet's surface (primarily its ocean and cryosphere) and 2) inertial behavior within its carbon cycle feedback.[4][5] Energy stored in the ocean following its inertial response is a primary determinant of near-term irreversible change known as climate commitment. These responses influence transient climate response (TCS or TCRE), but have little impact on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) because the planet's energy balance ultimately dictates the realignment between long-term GST and the atmospheric CO2 concentration; being itself mainly a function of total fossil carbon emitted.[4]

Earth's inertial responses are important because they provide the planet's diversity of life and its human civilization further time to adapt to an acceptable degree of planetary change. However, unadaptable change like that accompanying some tipping points may only be avoidable with early understanding and mitigation of the risk of such dangerous outcome.[6][7] An aim of Integrated assessment modelling, summarized for example as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), is to explore risks that accompany large uncertainties in the trajectory of socioeconomic drivers and responses.[8]

Thermal inertia
See also: Volumetric heat capacity § Thermal inertia

Ocean inertia

The ocean’s thermal inertia delays some global warming for decades or centuries. It is accounted for in global climate models, and has been confirmed via measurements of Earth’s energy balance.[6] Permafrost takes longer to respond to a warming planet because of thermal inertia, due to ice rich materials and permafrost thickness.[9]

The observed transient climate sensitivity and the equilibrium climate sensitivity are proportional to the thermal inertia time scale. Thus, Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity adjusts over time until a new steady state equilibrium has been reached.[10]

Ice sheet inertia

Even after CO2 emissions are lowered, the melting of ice sheets would continue, and further increase sea-level rise for centuries. The slow transportation of heat into the oceans and the slow response time of ice sheets will continue until the new system equilibrium has been reached.[11]

Inertia from carbon cycle feedbacks
See also: Climate change feedback § Carbon cycle

Ecological inertia
Main article: Ecological stability

Depending on the ecosystem, effects of climate change could show quickly, while others take more time to respond. For instance, coral bleaching can occur in a single warm season, while trees may be able to persist for decades under a changing climate, but be unable to regenerate. Changes in the frequency of extreme weather events could disrupt ecosystems as a consequence, depending on individual response times of species.[11]

Policy implications of inertia

The IPCC concluded that the inertia and uncertainty of the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems implies that margins for safety should be considered. Thus, setting strategies, targets, and time tables for avoiding dangerous interference through climate change. Further the IPCC concluded in their 2001 report that the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, or sea level is affected by:[11]

  • The inertia of the climate system, which will cause climate change to continue for a period after mitigation actions are implemented.
  • Uncertainty regarding the location of possible thresholds of irreversible change and the behavior of the system in their vicinity.
  • The time lags between adoption of mitigation goals and their achievement.

References
  1. Veto, M.S.; Christensen, P.R. (2015). "Mathematical Theory of Thermal Inertia Revisited" (PDF). 46th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference.
  2. "Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change". Carbon Brief. 19 April 2018. Retrieved 14 February 2023.
  3. Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang (1 January 2017). "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". Global Environmental Change. 42: 153–168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. ISSN 0959-3780.
  4. Mathews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan (26 April 2013). "Irreversible Does Not Mean Unavoidable" (PDF). Science. American Association for the Advancement of Science. 340 (6131): 438–439. doi:10.1126/science.1236372.
  5. Gregory, J.M.; Jones, C.D.; Cadule, P.; Friedlingstein, P. "Quantifying Carbon Cycle Feedbacks". Journal of Climate. 22: 5232–5250. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2949.1.
  6. Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; et al. (3 December 2013). "Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature". PLOS ONE. 8 (12): e81648. Bibcode:2013PLoSO...881648H. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648. PMC 3849278. PMID 24312568.
  7. Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre (13 October 2017). "Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences. 110 (43): 17229–17234. doi:10.1073/pnas.1300005110.
  8. Weyant, John (2017). "Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 11 (1): 115–137. doi:10.1093/reep/rew018. ISSN 1750-6816.
  9. M. W., Smith (1988). "The significance of climatic change for the permafrost environment". p. 19. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.383.5875.
  10. Royce, B. S. H.; Lam, S. H. (25 July 2013). "The Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Thermal Inertia". arXiv:1307.6821 [physics.ao-ph].
  11. "Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report". IPCC. 2001. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
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