2023 Berlin repeat state election

The 2023 Berlin repeat state election was held on 12 February 2023 to once again elect the 19th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin. The 19th Abgeordnetenhaus was originally elected on 26 September 2021. On 16 November 2022, the Constitutional Court of the State of Berlin declared the results invalid due to numerous irregularities and ordered a repeat election within 90 days.[1][2] A decision by the Federal Constitutional Court regarding five constitutional complaints is still pending, but will not be decided until after the repeat election.[3][4] The incumbent government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and The Left led by Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey.

2023 Berlin repeat state election

12 February 2023

All 159 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin, including 29 overhang and leveling seats
80 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,532,164 (63.0%) 12.3 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Candidate Kai Wegner Franziska Giffey Bettina Jarasch
Party CDU SPD Greens
Last election 30 seats, 18.0% 36 seats, 21.4% 32 seats, 18.9%
Seats won 52 34 34
Seat change 22 2 2
Popular vote 428,100 278,978 278,873
Percentage 28.2% 18.4% 18.4%
Swing 10.2 pp 3.0 pp 0.5 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Candidate Klaus Lederer Kristin Brinker Sebastian Czaja
Party Left AfD FDP
Last election 24 seats, 14.1% 13 seats, 8.0% 12 seats, 7.1%
Seats won 22 17 0
Seat change 2 4 12
Popular vote 184,954 137,810 70,416
Percentage 12.2% 9.1% 4.6%
Swing 1.9 pp 1.1 pp 2.4 pp

Results for single-member constituencies (left) and party list vote (right).

Government before election

Giffey senate
SPDGreenLeft

Elected Government

TBD

Alongside the Abgeordnetenhaus election, the borough council results were also ruled invalid and repeat elections ordered for the same date.[5]

With 28% of votes, the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) grew by over ten percentage points and emerged as the largest party by a wide margin, the first time it had done so since 1999. All three governing parties declined; the SPD suffered its worst result in over a century with 18.4%, and according to preliminary results only barely remained ahead of the Greens by a margin of about 100 votes. The Left also slipped to 12%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded a small upswing to 9%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell to 4.6% and lost all their seats. Overall, the incumbent government retained a reduced majority. The CDU claimed a mandate to govern given its first-place result, while mayor Giffey committed to remaining in government. Omid Nouripour voiced his hope that final results would show the Greens in second place, allowing them to lay claim to the mayoralty under a continuation of the outgoing coalition.[6]

Election date

The election to the 19th Berlin House of Representatives originally took place on 26 September 2021, but the results were ruled invalid by the Berlin Constitutional Court on 16 November 2022. A repeat election was ordered to take place within 90 days – 14 February 2023 at the latest. Constitutionally, the house has a term of five years. The Court's decision did not reset the legislative term, meaning the next regular elections must still take place no later than Autumn 2026.[7][8] State electoral officer Stephan Bröchler confirmed that the election will take place on Sunday 12 February, the latest possible date.[9]

The sitting members of the House of Representatives who, in accordance with the ruling of the Constitutional Court, remain in office until the repeat election, could circumvent the courts's ruling by dissolving the house and thus bringing about a snap election for a regular 20th legislative period (this is possible under the Berlin state constitution with a two-thirds majority of all members of parliament). However, this move was not being considered.

Electoral system

The Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%.[7]

Background

In the original election held on 26 September 2021, the SPD remained the largest party with 21.4% of the vote. The Greens grew to become the second-largest party with 18.9%, followed by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on 18.0%. The Left saw a small decline to 14.1%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) lost almost half their voteshare and fell to 8.0%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) saw a small improvement to 7.1%. The SPD had led a coalition with the Left and Greens since 2016, which was returned with an increased majority. The government was subsequently renewed under new mayor Franziska Giffey.

Numerous irregularities were reported during the 2021 elections, including shortages of ballot papers, unusually long queues to vote, ballots being delivered to the wrong locations, and in some cases voters being turned away or offered only ballot papers for the federal election. After months of investigation and hearings, in September 2022, the Constitutional Court of the State of Berlin issued a preliminary assessment declaring that a full repeat of the both the state and district council elections was likely necessary. This was confirmed by their official ruling in November. The results of the election were thus voided and new elections ordered for within 90 days.[1]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 19th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.

Name Ideology 2021 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy 21.4%
36 / 147
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics 18.9%
32 / 147
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy 18.0%
30 / 147
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism 14.1%
24 / 147
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism 8.0%
13 / 147
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism 7.1%
12 / 147

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample

size

SPD Grüne CDU Linke AfD FDP Others Lead
2023 state election 12 Feb 2023 18.4 18.4 28.2 12.2 9.1 4.6 9.0 9.8
Wahlkreisprognose 8–10 Feb 2023 1,000 19.5 18.5 25 13 9 5 10 5.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 8–9 Feb 2023 1,059 21 17 25 11 10 6 10 4
INSA 2–9 Feb 2023 1,000 19 18 25 12 10 6 10 6
Civey 2–9 Feb 2023 2,002 22 17 24 11 9 7 10 2
Forsa 30 Jan–3 Feb 2023 1,005 17 18 26 12 10 5 12 8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 31 Jan–2 Feb 2023 1,151 21 18 24 11 10 6 10 3
Wahlkreisprognose 31 Jan–2 Feb 2023 1,034 19 19 22 12.5 11.5 5.5 10.5 3
Infratest dimap 30 Jan–1 Feb 2023 1,540 19 18 25 12 10 6 10 6
Infratest dimap 12–16 Jan 2023 1,162 18 21 23 11 11 6 10 2
Wahlkreisprognose 6–9 Jan 2023 1,100 19.5 20 22.5 12.5 11 4 10.5 2.5
INSA 12–19 Dec 2022 1,000 21 20 21 12 10 6 10 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 11–13 Dec 2022 1,456 20 20.5 20 12.5 11 5 11 0.5
Infratest dimap 17–21 Nov 2022 1,179 19 22 21 11 10 5 12 1
Wahlkreisprognose 16–17 Nov 2022 1,200 18.5 18.5 18.5 14.5 12 6.5 11.5 Tie
INSA 7–11 Nov 2022 1,000 20 20 21 12 10 7 10 1
Wahlkreisprognose 27–29 Oct 2022 1,311 19 19.5 19 14.5 12 5 11 0.5
Wahlkreisprognose 10–13 Oct 2022 1,100 18 19 21 14 13 5 10 2
Infratest dimap 13–17 Sep 2022 1,173 17 22 21 12 10 6 12 1
Wahlkreisprognose 8–12 Aug 2022 1,100 20.5 26.5 19 10.5 9 5 9.5 6
INSA 4–11 Jul 2022 1,000 20 21 20 12 8 7 12 1
INSA 10–15 Jun 2022 1,000 21 20 21 12 8 8 10 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 18-25 May 2022 1,100 17 29.5 21 10.5 6.5 5.5 10 8.5
Infratest dimap 16–19 Mar 2022 1,170 20 21 20 12 8 8 11 1
INSA 6–13 Dec 2021 1,000 22 19 20 15 9 7 8 2
2021 state election 26 Sep 2021 21.4 18.9 18.0 14.1 8.0 7.1 12.5 2.5

West Berlin

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample

size

SPD Grüne CDU Linke AfD FDP Others Lead
2023 state election 12 Feb 2023 19.9 19.8 31.1 9.0 6.8 5.3 8.1 11.2
Infratest dimap 30 Jan–2 Feb 2023 21 19 29 8 8 5 10 8
Infratest dimap 12–16 Jan 2023 20 22 27 8 9 5 9 5
Infratest dimap 17–21 Nov 2022 20 23 25 8 8 5 11 2
Wahlkreisprognose 10–13 Oct 2022 19 20.5 24 10.5 10.5 5.5 10 3.5
Infratest dimap 13–17 Sep 2022 17 24 24 8 8 7 12 Tie
Infratest dimap 16–19 Mar 2022 21 23 24 7 6 8 11 1
2021 state election 26 Sep 2021 22.9 20.3 20.8 10.1 6.3 7.9 11.7 2.1

East Berlin

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample

size

SPD Linke Grüne CDU AfD FDP Others Lead
2023 state election 12 Feb 2023 16.4 16.6 16.4 24.3 12.2 3.7 10.4 7.7
Infratest dimap 31 Jan–2 Feb 2023 17 14 16 20 14 6 9 3
Infratest dimap 12–16 Jan 2023 17 14 18 18 15 6 12 Tie
Infratest dimap 17–21 Nov 2022 18 15 20 14 14 5 14 2
Wahlkreisprognose 10–13 Oct 2022 16 19.5 17.5 16.5 17 4 9.5 2
Infratest dimap 13–17 Sep 2022 17 16 20 17 12 5 13 3
Infratest dimap 16–19 Mar 2022 20 18 18 14 11 7 12 2
2021 state election 26 Sep 2021 19.4 19.4 17.0 14.3 10.3 6.1 11.7 Tie

Preliminary results

Results of the party list vote by voting precinct (Wahlbezirk).
PartyConstituencyParty listTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%+/–SeatsVotes%+/–Seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)449,93129.72+10.0748428,10028.23+10.23452+22
Social Democratic Party (SPD)301,73619.93–3.424278,97818.40–3.013034–2
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)289,96819.15–0.8320278,87318.39–0.461434+2
The Left (LINKE)186,36312.31–1.634184,95412.20–1.851822–2
Alternative for Germany (AfD)136,3669.01+0.942137,8109.09+1.101517+4
Free Democratic Party (FDP)58,3683.86–2.73070,4164.64–2.5000–12
Human Environment Animal Protection43,8742.90–0.47036,2332.39+0.1900±0
Die PARTEI25,1031.66–0.35021,5671.42–0.3800±0
Volt Germany00.00014,0260.93–0.1800±0
Grassroots Democratic Party11,4880.76–0.8908,3450.55–0.7200±0
The Greys00.0006,4250.42–0.2700±0
Team Todenhöfer00.0006,3240.42–0.6100±0
Grey Panthers00.0006,2680.41–0.0800±0
Pirate Party Germany1,1840.08–0.0105,1470.34–0.0700±0
Climate List Berlin00.0004,1000.27–0.1600±0
Free Voters5,6550.37–0.5603,9220.26–0.5800±0
Renters' Party9730.06±0.0003,8960.26+0.0300±0
Party for Health Research00.0003,7680.25–0.0200±0
The Urbans. A HipHop Party6100.04±0.0002,9950.20±0.0000±0
The Humanists00.0002,6550.18–0.0300±0
German Communist Party00.0002,5220.17+0.0400±0
Bildet Berlin!00.0001,7890.12–0.0200±0
Ecological Democratic Party6430.04–0.0201,6820.11–0.0200±0
National Democratic Party5770.04–0.0101,5890.10–0.0300±0
Bergpartei, die "ÜberPartei"00.0001,1390.08–0.0100±0
Socialist Equality Party00.0008010.05+0.0200±0
The Pinks/Alliance 21360.00±0.0007850.05±0.0000±0
Liberal Conservative Reformers3840.03–0.0204760.03–0.0400±0
Civil Rights Movement Solidarity00.0004070.03±0.0000±0
Human World00.0001630.01±0.0000±0
The New Democrats00.000690.00–0.0000±0
The Republicans150.00±0.000520.00±0.0000±0
German Conservative00.000150.00±0.0000±0
The Women1110.01±0.00000.0000±0
Liberal Democrats300.00±0.00000.0000±0
Democratic Left220.00±0.00000.0000±0
Independents6280.04–0.02000.0000±0
Total1,514,065100.00781,516,291100.0081159+12
Valid votes1,514,06599.111,516,29199.26
Invalid/blank votes13,5700.8911,2480.74
Total votes1,527,635100.001,527,539100.00
Registered voters/turnout2,431,72262.822,431,72262.82
Source:
Popular vote
CDU
28.27%
SPD
18.42%
GRÜNE
18.42%
LINKE
12.21%
AfD
9.10%
FDP
4.65%
Other
8.93%
Abgeordnetenhaus seats
CDU
32.70%
SPD
21.38%
GRÜNE
21.38%
LINKE
13.84%
AfD
10.69%


References

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